The article explains the DOJ’s antitrust case targeting Google’s ad tech stack, where prosecutors seek divestitures while Google argues a breakup would be disruptive, especially for small advertisers. Judge Leonie Brinkema is considering either a structural split or conduct remedies, with closing arguments in November and a decision expected in early 2026. Advertisers should anticipate potential volatility in pricing, tool fragmentation, and measurement noise if Google’s stack is separated, though Search auctions aren’t the direct target. For contractors, the recommendation is to focus on measurable, call-driving channels (Search and LSAs) and implement no‑regrets steps now: harden conversion tracking, protect branded search, segment intent, bid to booked jobs, de‑risk display, and own their data.

Google’s Ad Tech Trial: What Contractors Should Do Before Anything Breaks

TL;DR The DOJ wants Google to sell parts of its ad tech stack; Google says a breakup would hurt small advertisers. Judge could order a split or impose rules, with a decision likely in early 2026. Don’t wait—tighten tracking, de-risk your mix, and protect the channels that drive calls.

What actually happened

Over two weeks in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, more than two dozen witnesses—Google executives, rival ad tech leaders, publishers, and economists—testified in a case that targets Google’s dominance in ad tech. This isn’t about search results or SEO; it’s about the pipes that route display and programmatic ads (think ad exchanges and publisher tools).

The positions: DOJ vs. Google

• DOJ’s ask: Force Google to sell off its ad exchange and parts of its publisher tools to restore competition. They argue only a structural breakup reduces Google’s market power.
• Google’s pushback: A split would be technically messy and disruptive, especially for small businesses that rely on Google’s integrated stack. Their message: “You’ll break what works.”
• Rivals’ take: Firms like PubMatic and Equativ back the DOJ, saying conduct remedies won’t be enough to change the current power dynamics.

What the judge is weighing and when we’ll know

Judge Leonie Brinkema is open to either a breakup or a court-enforced settlement that imposes conduct restrictions.

• Timing: Closing arguments are slated for November. A decision is expected in early 2026.

Translation: nothing changes tomorrow. But the risk is real enough that smart advertisers should harden their setups now.

What this could mean for your ad dollars

• Pricing and access: A breakup could alter who gets to bid on what inventory and at what cost. Expect volatility in Display placements, CPMs, and how impressions are routed.
• Tool fragmentation: If pieces of Google’s stack separate, integrations may wobble. That can affect reporting cohesion and how conversion data moves between systems.
• Measurement noise: Any change in the ad serving “plumbing” can ripple through attribution. Call tracking and lead deduping become even more critical.
• Small advertiser impact: Google says a split hurts small businesses. Maybe—but the bigger risk for you is operational disruption. Plan for it, and you’ll be fine.

Bob’s take for contractors (HVAC, plumbing, electrical)

Your money-makers are still Search and LSAs because they convert to booked jobs with minimal fluff. Display and programmatic are fine for remarketing and filling shoulder seasons, but they’re not the backbone. This case targets ad tech plumbing, not Search auctions directly. Still, the more your setup relies on automated cross-product magic, the more turbulence you’ll feel if the pipes get re-plumbed.

I’m not anti-automation; I’m anti-black-box that breaks when the wind shifts. Keep your stack simple, measurable, and portable. Calls, not clicks.

No‑regrets moves you should make in the next 60 days

• Harden conversion truth: Ensure every call and form maps to a revenue-worthy conversion. Use unique call tracking numbers per channel and pass lead outcomes (booked/not booked) back into Google Ads where possible.
• Protect branded terms: Keep a clean, efficient branded Search campaign with tight negatives. Don’t let fluff siphon cheap branded conversions you already earned.
• Isolate intent: Segment non-brand Search by service line (AC repair, furnace install, drain cleaning, panel upgrade). Separate emergency keywords. Distinct budgets, distinct targets.
• Bid for jobs, not traffic: If you use automated bidding, optimize to qualified call conversions and target CPA aligned to profit per booked job. If data is thin, run manual CPC with eCPC and guardrails until your conversion signal is reliable.
• De-risk Display: Keep Display/Discovery spend modest and segmented. Run remarketing and tight in-market audiences. Exclude mobile app placements if they drive junk. Cap frequency.
• Own your data: Export weekly logs of campaigns

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