Holiday ecommerce spend is forecast to reach $253.4B, and while that’s a retail headline, the same behavior shifts—mobile dominance, deal-seeking, and heightened urgency—spill into local home services. Contractors should optimize for calls and booked jobs with mobile-first experiences, call assets/call-only campaigns, LSAs, fast pages, and precise geo/time bidding. During Cyber Week, protect budgets with strict retail negatives, lean into urgency and availability messaging, and staff phones (including after-hours) to capture high-intent leads. Push financing to ease sticker shock on big installs, start promotions early, and use clear, value-forward offers to convert without a race to the bottom.

Holiday Ecommerce Will Smash $253B—What That Means for Contractors Who Want Calls, Not Clicks

TL;DR If shoppers are in a frenzy online, your phones can be too—if you push mobile-first, clear financing, strong offers, and tight targeting. Don’t chase retail clicks. Optimize for booked jobs: call assets, LSAs, financing copy, early promos, after-hours coverage, and strict negatives for “deal” traffic.

The headline is retail—but the behavior shift hits local services

Online holiday spend is projected to hit $253.4B this year, up 5.3% YoY. Cyber Week alone should drive $43.7B (Cyber Monday $14.2B, Black Friday $11.7B, Thanksgiving $6.4B). That’s ecom, not HVAC or plumbing, but the consumer behavior behind it absolutely bleeds into home services. When wallets open and mobile use spikes, intent and attention get weird. Your job: capture high-intent local searches and phone calls while filtering out “deal-hunting” noise.

Mobile is the default customer journey—build for one-tap calls

Mobile will drive 56.1% of online holiday spending. If your ads or pages make calling hard, you’re paying for window shoppers, not booked jobs.

• Prioritize call-first: add call extensions and call-only campaigns during daytime hours; use “Call Now for Same-Day Service” in headlines.
• Speed test your landing pages. If it’s slow on LTE, you’re losing calls.
• Use location + hour-based bid modifiers; tighten radius when the schedule is full.
• Turn on LSAs (Google Local Services Ads) and keep your phone answered—LSA leads are pay-per-lead and rank is heavily tied to responsiveness and reviews.

Cyber Week is noisy—use it to your advantage without wasting budget

Cyber Week sucks oxygen out of the room. People expect deals, search volumes spike, and “coupon” traffic bleeds into everything. Here’s how to play it:

• Protect your budget with negatives for retail terms: “Black Friday,” “Cyber Monday,” “coupon,” “promo code,” “deal,” “free shipping,” “electronics,” “toy,” “apparel.”
• Shift messaging to urgency and availability: “Emergency Furnace Repair—Technician Today,” “Drain Clearing in 90 Minutes.” That cuts through the retail fog.
• Staff phones and after-hours. If you advertise during holidays, answer. Missed calls during Cyber Week cost 2–3x because competition is higher.
• Use ad schedules to push when you can actually take jobs. Otherwise throttle bids and let LSAs do more of the heavy lifting.

Financing is the BNPL of home services—promote it aggressively

BNPL is projected at $20.2B (+11% YoY), with 80% on mobile. Translation for contractors: financing calms sticker shock and converts big-ticket installs.

• Put monthly payment language in headlines and assets: “New Furnace from $89/mo OAC,” “0% APR for 12 Months.”
• Add a financing sitelink and promotion asset; use a financing FAQ module on your landing pages.
• Qualify quickly: lead forms with “Interested in financing?” improve handoff and close rates.

Start early—don’t wait for the first frost

October promos (Prime Day, etc.) should add ~$9B online. Consumers are “primed” early. Same idea for tune-ups and pre-winter checks:

• Ramp budgets and impression share in October/early November for heating tune-ups and safety checks.
• Warm up audiences: 14–30 day site visitors + converters for remarketing. Offer “priority scheduling” to club members.
• Stage your promotions: early-bird tune-up, then financing-heavy install messaging as temps drop.

Discounts work—but don’t race to the bottom

Retail expects peak discounts: electronics 28%, toys 27%, apparel 25%. For contractors, the lesson isn’t slash-and-burn. It’s clarity and perceived value.

• Lead with a clean, believable offer: “$79 Heating Tune-Up,” “$93 or It’s Free Drain Clear,” “Free Second Opinion.”
• Bundle value: warranty, maintenance plan, priority service—not just price cuts.
• Use promotion assets with end dates to create urgency without changing your whole price sheet.

AI and social proof

Holiday ecommerce to hit record $253 billion – here’s what’s driving it