LLM Traffic Isn’t Taking Your Leads—Keep Your Budget Where Jobs Come From
A broad analysis of 973 ecommerce sites (Aug 2024–Jul 2025) finds that ChatGPT referrals account for only about 0.2% of sessions and underperform key channels like organic search and affiliates on conversion rate and revenue per session. While ChatGPT traffic shows relatively low bounce rates and improving trends, it still trails organic and paid search, and is unlikely to reach parity within a year. Supporting studies indicate organic search generally drives stronger engagement, with LLMs only outperforming in limited niches. For home service contractors, the takeaway is to prioritize high-intent Google channels (LSAs, search, GBP/SEO) and treat LLM experiments as small tests rather than budget shifts.
LLM Traffic Isn’t Taking Your Leads—Keep Your Budget Where Jobs Come From
TL;DR ChatGPT and LLM referrals remain a rounding error next to Google Search and convert worse. Useful to monitor, not to fund. For contractors who want phones ringing, stay focused on high-intent search (Google Ads, LSAs, and strong GBP/SEO). Run small AI experiments, but don’t reallocate budget away from proven call drivers.
What the study actually says
A large analysis looked at 973 ecommerce sites from August 2024 to July 2025, representing $20B in revenue. While that’s ecommerce, the directional data matters for any performance marketer.
- ChatGPT referrals were ~0.2% of total sessions—roughly 200x smaller than Google organic.
- Conversion rates: affiliate and organic search were 86% and 13% higher than ChatGPT, respectively. Only paid social did worse than ChatGPT.
- Revenue per session from ChatGPT trailed organic and paid search, but beat paid social.
- Bounce rates from ChatGPT were lower than most channels, yet organic and paid search still had the lowest bounces and deeper sessions.
- Trendline: conversion rate and revenue per session from ChatGPT improved, but average order value fell. No parity with organic search expected in the next year.
- Methodology: first-party GA data with regression modeling; 50,000 ChatGPT-driven transactions vs. 164 million from traditional channels.
- Supporting studies: SALT.agency saw stronger engagement from organic across sectors, with LLMs only shining in a few niches (health, careers). Amsive saw negligible conversion differences between LLM and organic.
Why contractors should care (and what not to overreact to)
Home services are urgency-driven. When a furnace dies at 6 p.m., people search “furnace repair near me,” tap a LSA or top ad, and call. That’s high intent and it’s why Google Search and LSAs keep winning. The study reinforces that LLM referral traffic is small and softer in purchase intent.
There’s also a trust gap with AI answers. Shoppers often verify elsewhere before they buy or call. In last-click models, the credit flows back to search or direct—exactly what you see in your call logs.
Calls, not clicks. If a channel doesn’t move booked jobs at acceptable CPL and ROAS, it’s a research toy—not a budget line.
What to do now: practical playbook for HVAC, plumbing, electrical
1) Protect the revenue core
- LSAs (Google Guaranteed): Own your top slots, maintain perfect profile health, dispute aggressively, and watch your booked-job rate.
- Search campaigns: Lean into high-intent keywords. Broad match is fine only if you’ve got tight negatives, exact match anchors, and offline conversions feeding Smart Bidding.
- Brand + competitor coverage: Defend your name. Cherry-pick competitor conquesting where close rates justify the CPC.
- GBP/Local SEO: Category accuracy, service lists, photos, service area, and review velocity. This is your perpetual motion machine for free calls.